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According to statistics, the worldwide sports betting market is worth nearly $3 trillion. And more than $150 billion of this amount is wagered in the U.S. Running an own sportsbook is a lucrative.
Often, I write information about how to make money as a sports bettor. Some professional bettors are able to turn a long-term profit, but there's no doubt that it's hard to do.
- Find a pay per head. Look at the RDG Corp., they are honest and give you the goods for around $7-$10 per head and literally everything is taken care of. All you need is the clients and a reliable way to take deposits.
- But with the technological progress, sports apps and betting apps have evolved and now feature a rich collection of different functions, that can satisfy every customer. This means, that it is a great time to know how to make a betting app. Now, there are many different betting apps for different platforms.
But learning how to beat the bookmakers isn't the only way to make money in the sports betting world. The bookmakers are the ones making most of the money, so you could consider starting your own bookmaking business.
The problem with this is that the legal issues and cost often make it difficult or impossible.
But there's another way you can make money in the sports betting world. What if you were able to sell sports-betting tips and advice to others?
If you want to know how to start your own business selling sports picks, I've compiled a guide to help you get started.
The profit potential can be big. For most bettors, it can offer the chance for far greater profits than betting on games.
If you can find 100 people willing to pay you $100 a month for picks, you can make $10,000 a month. Or you can make the same if you can find 1,000 people willing to buy picks for $10 a month.
Nov 04, 2019 Round this amount off to $1.50 for breakage and you get odds of 1.5-1 or 3-2, as it would normally be written, which yields a payoff of $5 on a wager of $2. Payoffs for $2 Win Bets Since most tracks have a $2 minimum bet, below is a handy chart to look up the payoff for a $2 bet at various odds. Odds are simply the way prices and payouts are shown at a horse track. The numbers displayed as 4-7 or 2-5 tell you what you pay and how much you get back if the horse you bet on wins. The first number tells you how much you could win, the second number is the amount you bet. So, if the odds are listed as 2-1, you'll get $2 for every $1 you bet.
The number of sports bettors making $10,000 a month is small, but if you know how to market your services, you have a real chance of making money with less risk than betting on games.
Models
One of the first things you need to do is decide which model you plan to use to sell picks. The three main models are:
- Subscription – In the subscription model, your buyers pay a set fee, usually on a weekly or monthly basis, and receive a set number of picks each term. This is a good model for ongoing income, because once you get someone signed up, you just have to keep them happy to keep the money flowing.
- Package – A package is somewhat like a subscription in that you sell more than one pick at a time. But it's usually a one-time fee for a package of picks. A common package is for all of the NFL games for the week or all of the MLB games for the day.
- Individual – Selling individual picks is just like it sounds. You sell your pick for a particular game. This can be by the game of the week or by offering a series of games where your customers can pick the individual games they want picks for.
Of course, you can use more than one model, or a combination of models. And these aren't the only ways to sell picks. These are just the most common.
One model isn't necessarily better than another, and once you build your customer base, you might want to offer multiple options.
You can have different levels of subscription models and different size packages. A subscription model could have a silver, gold, and platinum level, where the silver members get 5 games a week, the golds get 10, and the platinum members get 20.
If you sell packages, you can sell a set package with specific games, or you can sell a package of credits, where your customers can pick a set number of individual games they want picks for.
The model you use is up to you and depends on how you want to run your business. I suggest starting with one model and expanding from there.
I prefer the subscription model, because if you do a good job keeping your bettors happy, you can predict your income from week to week or month to month, and you only have the marketing cost of acquiring the customer the first time.
Marketing
The thing that makes or breaks your ability to make money selling sports betting picks isn't your ability to pick winners. The most important thing is your ability to market your services and acquire paying customers.
You can use a wide range of marketing options to build your business. Here are a few ideas to help you get started:
- Social Media – It seems like everyone is on social media of some sort these days. People spend a great deal of time on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and a host of other media platforms.
The biggest issue with building your sports betting customer base on social media platforms are the cost and the terms. Some social media outlets avoid gambling-related ads and services, and the ones that allow gambling ads have a competitive market that drives the prices up.
- Print – Print advertising is available in a wide range of options, including newspapers and magazines. Just like with most forms of advertising, you need to keep a close eye on your costs, but if you can figure out the formula for making more than you spend, print advertising is plentiful, so you won't run out of places to advertise.
- Radio – Radio isn't one of the most popular forms of advertising, but many sports bettors are radio listeners. They listen to games and sports talk radio, so if you can buy radio spots during games and/or on sports talk shows and stations, you can reach your target market.
You can find thousands of radio stations that are looking for advertisers, so you have plenty of options.
- Television – Sports bettors watch games on television and follow sports news on stations like ESPN. You sometimes run into the same challenges as social media, as television stations can be afraid of running gambling-related advertising.
- Pay-Per-Click – You can run pay-per-click ads, also called PPC, on the internet. Search engines like Google and Yahoo sell ads where you only pay when someone clicks on your ads. Read the terms and conditions to find out if they take gambling ads.
- Your Own Website – You should create your own website if you want to sell sports picks. But creating a site is only a small part of the battle. You still need to get potential customers to the site. You can drive traffic to your site using the other forms of marketing listed above and learn some basic search engine optimization (called SEO) strategies to get search engine traffic.
In order to succeed, you need to be able to get potential customers to your site. You need to explore these marketing options and any others you run across to see if you can profitably get new customers.
When you figure out how to acquire new customers for less than what they pay you, your new business has a chance to grow and create a long-term profit.
If you continually need to find new customers, it can be costly, so try to maximize the value of each customer you get. You can maximize the value by increasing the amount they spend on their first purchase and by getting them to continue spending money after their initial purchase.
Delivery
The next thing you need to consider is how you plan to deliver your picks. You have a few different options, and the technology available today makes it easier than ever. Here are the most common options:
- Email – Email is the best way for most pick sellers to get started. All you need to do is get your buyer's email when they sign up, and then add them to your list. You can get email list software that makes it easy to manage your list and still sends emails for free.
- Private Website – You can also set up a private area on your website that people have to log in to access. You can post your picks to the private area, and each of your buyers can have a separate login and password to access the picks.
- Answering System – You can record your picks on an answering machine or through a cell phone voicemail system. This becomes complicated when you sell different picks and packages, and how do you keep someone who drops your service from continuing to call and get your picks? You can find ways around this, but this isn't the way I'd get started.
- Fax – Fax delivery is not as popular as it once was, but some people still use it. Even if your buyers don't have a fax machine, some of them can receive faxes as email now. I don't recommend using a fax delivery system, because email and a private website are easier to set up or have set up, and most people who bet on sports at least know how to use one or the other.
If you don't know anything about setting up websites and private areas online, I suggest using email to get started. If you can get a private area set up, it can be better than email, because you don't have to worry about your emails not getting delivered or being put in a spam folder.
You can also offer a combination of both email and a password-protected section of your site, so your buyers can use whichever method they prefer.
Pricing
A big decision needs to be made about how much you plan to charge for your subscription, picks, and packages. If you research the prices charged by current pick sellers, you can find prices ranging from a few dollars to hundreds of dollars.
To some degree, the less you charge, the more likely someone is to try your services, but this isn't 100% accurate. People decide to spend money for a variety of different reasons, and sometimes it takes just as much effort and money to get someone to buy at a lower price as it does at a higher price.
You need to charge enough so that you can afford to advertise to get new customers, but you don't want to charge so much that many people can't afford to buy. This is something that many businesses struggle with.
In business, you want to be profitable and maximize the profits, but finding the right mix is challenging. The best thing to do is test as many options and price points as possible to learn where you can make the most profit.
Most people don't think anything about spending a few dollars a day on coffee, or cigarettes, or the lottery, or something else. Most of us have something we spend money on without thinking about it.
If you spend $3 a day on something, that adds up to around $90 a month. This is a decent estimate of what you might be able to charge your customers, if you can convince them it's a good deal. I see many pick subscriptions and packages around $100 a month.
Of course, I see many at much higher prices, too. Part of your price strategy involves your target customers. If you target the average weekend sports bettor, you might charge $49.99 a month. But if you target high-end bettors, you might be able to charge $499 a month.
One way to offer something for almost everyone is by providing different subscription levels, or packages with different prices and services attached. An entry-level membership might cost $19.99 a month and provide five picks a week.
The top-end subscription might cost $199 a month and provide 20 picks a week and advanced analysis for some games.
You can set your prices at whatever you want, because there's no industry norm. But you should set them at the point where you can maximize your profits, whether this is from many people at a low price or fewer people at a high price.
One thing to remember is that it's difficult to raise your price for your existing customers. But just because you have some customers paying one price doesn't mean you can't charge more for the same service for new customers.
Do You Have to Be Good at Picking Winners?
Most people think they have to be good at picking winners to sell picks. While it helps if you're good at picking winners, the truth is that if you do a good job marketing, it doesn't really matter.
It doesn't matter if you consistently beat the sportsbooks, because no one is going to buy your picks just because of this. Everyone that tries to sell picks claims that they can beat the books.
You can find all kinds of outrageous claims and fuzzy math to back them up. I've seen all kinds of supposed proof, and after a while it all seems like a sleazy sales pitch.
And once you learn how some sleazy operators work, you're probably never going to buy a pick again. But you don't have to operate like them.
Here's an example:
If you can use effective marketing and advertising to generate a stream of paying customers, you can simply flip a coin when you make your picks. Or you can give half your customers one side of a game and the other half the other side of a game.
Let's say that you can get 400 customers to sign up for a game-of-the-week package for $49 a month. The first week, you give 200 of them one side of a game, and the other 200 the other side of the game. You do the same thing the second, third, and fourth week.
After the first week, 200 customers received a winning pick, and 200 received a losing pick. After the second week, 100 customers received two winners in a row, 200 customers have received one winner and one loser, and 100 customers have received two losers in a row.
After four weeks, you have 25 customers that have received four straight winners, 100 customers that are 3 and 1, 150 customers that are 2 and 2, 100 customers that are 1and 3, and 25 customers that have received four straight losers.
The 25 customers that have received four winners in a row are likely to continue, and the 100 that are 3 and 1 are also likely to continue. You could offer anyone else that doesn't continue their subscription a half-off deal for the next month.
If you can keep acquiring new customers for a reasonable amount of money, you can build a profitable business model and never have to make a real pick.
I don't recommend doing business this way. The reason I showed you this example is so you can see why marketing is more important than being able to pick winners.
Of course, it's best if you can pick winners and learn how to become a good marketer. If you can consistently give your customers good service and winning picks, you can build a solid business that can give you a good profit for years to come.
Do You Have to Be Sleazy?
You just read an example of a sleazy pick seller. A person who runs a business like the one in the example is dishonest, and an argument could be made that they're a thief. They don't offer any true value to their customers.
But the sleaze factor doesn't stop here in the pick selling business. Many sellers make outrageous claims about how great their picks are and how they guarantee winners. They can run a different scam much like the one in the example by offering a money-back guarantee on their picks.
You pay for a pick and supposedly get your money back if it doesn't win. They give half the buyers one side of a game and the other half the other side. When the losers try to get their money back, they get offered a free pick or a series of free picks instead.
Let me be clear about this: you don't have to be sleazy to sell sports picks. Most people aren't going to believe anything you tell them anyway, so why make untrue and outrageous claims?
Set up and run your business in a different way. Try being honest and try to give true value to your customers. Most pick buyers are so used to getting screwed that if they find a seller who gives good service and is honest, they can be turned into lifetime customers.
It's up to you how you set up and run your business, but companies that don't offer any real value to their customers tend to fail. It doesn't always happen fast, but eventually they tend to crash and burn.
It costs so much to acquire new customers that you can't afford lose too many of them once you have them. When you run your pick-selling business ethically and continually offer value, you have a good chance to survive and thrive. It's not a guarantee of success, but it gives the best odds for long-term profits.
Conclusion
If you want to create a way to make money from the sports betting business, consider starting your own pick service. Use this guide about how to start your own business of selling sports picks to get started.
The key is figuring out how to be an effective marketer and offering good service and value to your customers. If you can do these two things, the rest will take care of itself. In this guide, you learned how to pick a model, price your services, and deliver your picks, and the best marketing options to get started.
Now all you need to do is take action. Either build a website or find someone to build one for you, offer a subscription service or package, and start driving traffic to your site
How do you build a sports betting model? What steps are involved? What do you need to consider? Follow these steps to build your own quantitative model, and take your betting to the next level.
What is a betting model?
In it's simplest form a sports betting model is a system that can identify unbiased reference points from where you can determine the probability for all outcomes in a particular game.
The model will ultimately be able to highlight profitable betting opportunities, by judging a team's true ability more accurately than a bookmaker.
However, building a sports betting model can be difficult and time consuming. There are various instructions and orders advised for you to follow when creating a model, which can complicate the process.
With that said, once you have created a successful betting model, it can show you opportunities that the general betting public simply wouldn't consider.
Let's begin.
For this example we use an approach similar to the Actuarial Control Cycle – a quantitative risk assessment employed by insurance companies. There are five main features:
- Defining the problem
- Building the solution
- Monitoring results
- Professionalism
- External forces
Step 1: Specify the aim of your betting model
Best Betting Website
This appears simple, but many sports bettors miss the point their betting model is trying to accomplish.
Once you have created a successful betting model, it can show you opportunities that the general betting public simply wouldn't consider.
Without an aim you could be overwhelmed with numbers and lose focus of your overall goals.
Although you may argue you can get the data first to see if there are any patterns, this would still need to be tested against a number of hypothesis, each with a different aim.
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Therefore starting with a specific, rather than a generic aim, is strongly recommended.
Step 2: Select the metric
The next step is to formalise your investigation into numerical form by selecting a quantifiable metric.
These first two steps relate to defining the problem stage of the Actuarial Control Cycle.
Step 3: Collect, group and modify data
Every model needs data so you can integrate it into your algorithm. There are two ways of collecting data – by yourself, or by using other published data online.
Luckily, there is a plethora of data available on the Internet, some of which is free, while some websites offer a paid service.
Once you have the data, you may realise that there are queries that need to be taken care of.
If we are looking at Premier League teams for instance, should you consider all matches or just their league games? It's possible to make adjustments if the team in question had players missing, or had a mid-week Champions' League clash.
This is where you can exercise your judgement, determined by what your aim is.
Step 4: Choosing the form of your model
This is where the mathematics comes into play given there are so many models to choose from or invent.
There is a plethora of data available on the Internet, some of which is free, while some websites offer a paid service.
We have proposed a number of models in the past and they can be as complex or as simple as you wish. Our recommendation is not to overcomplicate.
This step can be interchanged with step 3 as the data may lead you to use a particular model, or a particular model may require specific data.
Step 5: Dealing with assumptions
Each model will have a number of assumptions, and you should be aware of their limitations. You may forget to do this, but it's absolutely vital.
For example a significant contributor to the financial crisis in 2007-08 was the misuse of derivatives caused by a misunderstanding of assumptions in contracts such as Collateralised Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps.
Previously in this article we highlighted how averages and standard deviations assume events are normally distributed. This for example would need be tested.
Step 6: Build the sports betting model
The next step is to actually build the sports betting model. There are numerous tools to use including online calculators, Excel, MatLab, Java, R programming and VBA.
You don't have to be a wiz at programming to build a sports betting model, but the more you understand the functionality, the better equipped you will become when testing and analysing the data.
Step 7: Test the model
You don't have to be a wiz at programming to build a sports betting model, but the more you understand the functionality, the better equipped you will become when testing and analysing the data.
It's paramount that you test the efficiency of any sports betting model to understand how sensitive it is to the results.
In any case the results of the model may lead us to reconsider any of the previous steps.
The key question as always is whether or not the model is making a profit? Therefore you'd need to test that – leading you to running through the cycle again.
The number of sports bettors making $10,000 a month is small, but if you know how to market your services, you have a real chance of making money with less risk than betting on games.
Models
One of the first things you need to do is decide which model you plan to use to sell picks. The three main models are:
- Subscription – In the subscription model, your buyers pay a set fee, usually on a weekly or monthly basis, and receive a set number of picks each term. This is a good model for ongoing income, because once you get someone signed up, you just have to keep them happy to keep the money flowing.
- Package – A package is somewhat like a subscription in that you sell more than one pick at a time. But it's usually a one-time fee for a package of picks. A common package is for all of the NFL games for the week or all of the MLB games for the day.
- Individual – Selling individual picks is just like it sounds. You sell your pick for a particular game. This can be by the game of the week or by offering a series of games where your customers can pick the individual games they want picks for.
Of course, you can use more than one model, or a combination of models. And these aren't the only ways to sell picks. These are just the most common.
One model isn't necessarily better than another, and once you build your customer base, you might want to offer multiple options.
You can have different levels of subscription models and different size packages. A subscription model could have a silver, gold, and platinum level, where the silver members get 5 games a week, the golds get 10, and the platinum members get 20.
If you sell packages, you can sell a set package with specific games, or you can sell a package of credits, where your customers can pick a set number of individual games they want picks for.
The model you use is up to you and depends on how you want to run your business. I suggest starting with one model and expanding from there.
I prefer the subscription model, because if you do a good job keeping your bettors happy, you can predict your income from week to week or month to month, and you only have the marketing cost of acquiring the customer the first time.
Marketing
The thing that makes or breaks your ability to make money selling sports betting picks isn't your ability to pick winners. The most important thing is your ability to market your services and acquire paying customers.
You can use a wide range of marketing options to build your business. Here are a few ideas to help you get started:
- Social Media – It seems like everyone is on social media of some sort these days. People spend a great deal of time on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and a host of other media platforms.
The biggest issue with building your sports betting customer base on social media platforms are the cost and the terms. Some social media outlets avoid gambling-related ads and services, and the ones that allow gambling ads have a competitive market that drives the prices up.
- Print – Print advertising is available in a wide range of options, including newspapers and magazines. Just like with most forms of advertising, you need to keep a close eye on your costs, but if you can figure out the formula for making more than you spend, print advertising is plentiful, so you won't run out of places to advertise.
- Radio – Radio isn't one of the most popular forms of advertising, but many sports bettors are radio listeners. They listen to games and sports talk radio, so if you can buy radio spots during games and/or on sports talk shows and stations, you can reach your target market.
You can find thousands of radio stations that are looking for advertisers, so you have plenty of options.
- Television – Sports bettors watch games on television and follow sports news on stations like ESPN. You sometimes run into the same challenges as social media, as television stations can be afraid of running gambling-related advertising.
- Pay-Per-Click – You can run pay-per-click ads, also called PPC, on the internet. Search engines like Google and Yahoo sell ads where you only pay when someone clicks on your ads. Read the terms and conditions to find out if they take gambling ads.
- Your Own Website – You should create your own website if you want to sell sports picks. But creating a site is only a small part of the battle. You still need to get potential customers to the site. You can drive traffic to your site using the other forms of marketing listed above and learn some basic search engine optimization (called SEO) strategies to get search engine traffic.
In order to succeed, you need to be able to get potential customers to your site. You need to explore these marketing options and any others you run across to see if you can profitably get new customers.
When you figure out how to acquire new customers for less than what they pay you, your new business has a chance to grow and create a long-term profit.
If you continually need to find new customers, it can be costly, so try to maximize the value of each customer you get. You can maximize the value by increasing the amount they spend on their first purchase and by getting them to continue spending money after their initial purchase.
Delivery
The next thing you need to consider is how you plan to deliver your picks. You have a few different options, and the technology available today makes it easier than ever. Here are the most common options:
- Email – Email is the best way for most pick sellers to get started. All you need to do is get your buyer's email when they sign up, and then add them to your list. You can get email list software that makes it easy to manage your list and still sends emails for free.
- Private Website – You can also set up a private area on your website that people have to log in to access. You can post your picks to the private area, and each of your buyers can have a separate login and password to access the picks.
- Answering System – You can record your picks on an answering machine or through a cell phone voicemail system. This becomes complicated when you sell different picks and packages, and how do you keep someone who drops your service from continuing to call and get your picks? You can find ways around this, but this isn't the way I'd get started.
- Fax – Fax delivery is not as popular as it once was, but some people still use it. Even if your buyers don't have a fax machine, some of them can receive faxes as email now. I don't recommend using a fax delivery system, because email and a private website are easier to set up or have set up, and most people who bet on sports at least know how to use one or the other.
If you don't know anything about setting up websites and private areas online, I suggest using email to get started. If you can get a private area set up, it can be better than email, because you don't have to worry about your emails not getting delivered or being put in a spam folder.
You can also offer a combination of both email and a password-protected section of your site, so your buyers can use whichever method they prefer.
Pricing
A big decision needs to be made about how much you plan to charge for your subscription, picks, and packages. If you research the prices charged by current pick sellers, you can find prices ranging from a few dollars to hundreds of dollars.
To some degree, the less you charge, the more likely someone is to try your services, but this isn't 100% accurate. People decide to spend money for a variety of different reasons, and sometimes it takes just as much effort and money to get someone to buy at a lower price as it does at a higher price.
You need to charge enough so that you can afford to advertise to get new customers, but you don't want to charge so much that many people can't afford to buy. This is something that many businesses struggle with.
In business, you want to be profitable and maximize the profits, but finding the right mix is challenging. The best thing to do is test as many options and price points as possible to learn where you can make the most profit.
Most people don't think anything about spending a few dollars a day on coffee, or cigarettes, or the lottery, or something else. Most of us have something we spend money on without thinking about it.
If you spend $3 a day on something, that adds up to around $90 a month. This is a decent estimate of what you might be able to charge your customers, if you can convince them it's a good deal. I see many pick subscriptions and packages around $100 a month.
Of course, I see many at much higher prices, too. Part of your price strategy involves your target customers. If you target the average weekend sports bettor, you might charge $49.99 a month. But if you target high-end bettors, you might be able to charge $499 a month.
One way to offer something for almost everyone is by providing different subscription levels, or packages with different prices and services attached. An entry-level membership might cost $19.99 a month and provide five picks a week.
The top-end subscription might cost $199 a month and provide 20 picks a week and advanced analysis for some games.
You can set your prices at whatever you want, because there's no industry norm. But you should set them at the point where you can maximize your profits, whether this is from many people at a low price or fewer people at a high price.
One thing to remember is that it's difficult to raise your price for your existing customers. But just because you have some customers paying one price doesn't mean you can't charge more for the same service for new customers.
Do You Have to Be Good at Picking Winners?
Most people think they have to be good at picking winners to sell picks. While it helps if you're good at picking winners, the truth is that if you do a good job marketing, it doesn't really matter.
It doesn't matter if you consistently beat the sportsbooks, because no one is going to buy your picks just because of this. Everyone that tries to sell picks claims that they can beat the books.
You can find all kinds of outrageous claims and fuzzy math to back them up. I've seen all kinds of supposed proof, and after a while it all seems like a sleazy sales pitch.
And once you learn how some sleazy operators work, you're probably never going to buy a pick again. But you don't have to operate like them.
Here's an example:
If you can use effective marketing and advertising to generate a stream of paying customers, you can simply flip a coin when you make your picks. Or you can give half your customers one side of a game and the other half the other side of a game.
Let's say that you can get 400 customers to sign up for a game-of-the-week package for $49 a month. The first week, you give 200 of them one side of a game, and the other 200 the other side of the game. You do the same thing the second, third, and fourth week.
After the first week, 200 customers received a winning pick, and 200 received a losing pick. After the second week, 100 customers received two winners in a row, 200 customers have received one winner and one loser, and 100 customers have received two losers in a row.
After four weeks, you have 25 customers that have received four straight winners, 100 customers that are 3 and 1, 150 customers that are 2 and 2, 100 customers that are 1and 3, and 25 customers that have received four straight losers.
The 25 customers that have received four winners in a row are likely to continue, and the 100 that are 3 and 1 are also likely to continue. You could offer anyone else that doesn't continue their subscription a half-off deal for the next month.
If you can keep acquiring new customers for a reasonable amount of money, you can build a profitable business model and never have to make a real pick.
I don't recommend doing business this way. The reason I showed you this example is so you can see why marketing is more important than being able to pick winners.
Of course, it's best if you can pick winners and learn how to become a good marketer. If you can consistently give your customers good service and winning picks, you can build a solid business that can give you a good profit for years to come.
Do You Have to Be Sleazy?
You just read an example of a sleazy pick seller. A person who runs a business like the one in the example is dishonest, and an argument could be made that they're a thief. They don't offer any true value to their customers.
But the sleaze factor doesn't stop here in the pick selling business. Many sellers make outrageous claims about how great their picks are and how they guarantee winners. They can run a different scam much like the one in the example by offering a money-back guarantee on their picks.
You pay for a pick and supposedly get your money back if it doesn't win. They give half the buyers one side of a game and the other half the other side. When the losers try to get their money back, they get offered a free pick or a series of free picks instead.
Let me be clear about this: you don't have to be sleazy to sell sports picks. Most people aren't going to believe anything you tell them anyway, so why make untrue and outrageous claims?
Set up and run your business in a different way. Try being honest and try to give true value to your customers. Most pick buyers are so used to getting screwed that if they find a seller who gives good service and is honest, they can be turned into lifetime customers.
It's up to you how you set up and run your business, but companies that don't offer any real value to their customers tend to fail. It doesn't always happen fast, but eventually they tend to crash and burn.
It costs so much to acquire new customers that you can't afford lose too many of them once you have them. When you run your pick-selling business ethically and continually offer value, you have a good chance to survive and thrive. It's not a guarantee of success, but it gives the best odds for long-term profits.
Conclusion
If you want to create a way to make money from the sports betting business, consider starting your own pick service. Use this guide about how to start your own business of selling sports picks to get started.
The key is figuring out how to be an effective marketer and offering good service and value to your customers. If you can do these two things, the rest will take care of itself. In this guide, you learned how to pick a model, price your services, and deliver your picks, and the best marketing options to get started.
Now all you need to do is take action. Either build a website or find someone to build one for you, offer a subscription service or package, and start driving traffic to your site
How do you build a sports betting model? What steps are involved? What do you need to consider? Follow these steps to build your own quantitative model, and take your betting to the next level.
What is a betting model?
In it's simplest form a sports betting model is a system that can identify unbiased reference points from where you can determine the probability for all outcomes in a particular game.
The model will ultimately be able to highlight profitable betting opportunities, by judging a team's true ability more accurately than a bookmaker.
However, building a sports betting model can be difficult and time consuming. There are various instructions and orders advised for you to follow when creating a model, which can complicate the process.
With that said, once you have created a successful betting model, it can show you opportunities that the general betting public simply wouldn't consider.
Let's begin.
For this example we use an approach similar to the Actuarial Control Cycle – a quantitative risk assessment employed by insurance companies. There are five main features:
- Defining the problem
- Building the solution
- Monitoring results
- Professionalism
- External forces
Step 1: Specify the aim of your betting model
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This appears simple, but many sports bettors miss the point their betting model is trying to accomplish.
Once you have created a successful betting model, it can show you opportunities that the general betting public simply wouldn't consider.
Without an aim you could be overwhelmed with numbers and lose focus of your overall goals.
Although you may argue you can get the data first to see if there are any patterns, this would still need to be tested against a number of hypothesis, each with a different aim.
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Therefore starting with a specific, rather than a generic aim, is strongly recommended.
Step 2: Select the metric
The next step is to formalise your investigation into numerical form by selecting a quantifiable metric.
These first two steps relate to defining the problem stage of the Actuarial Control Cycle.
Step 3: Collect, group and modify data
Every model needs data so you can integrate it into your algorithm. There are two ways of collecting data – by yourself, or by using other published data online.
Luckily, there is a plethora of data available on the Internet, some of which is free, while some websites offer a paid service.
Once you have the data, you may realise that there are queries that need to be taken care of.
If we are looking at Premier League teams for instance, should you consider all matches or just their league games? It's possible to make adjustments if the team in question had players missing, or had a mid-week Champions' League clash.
This is where you can exercise your judgement, determined by what your aim is.
Step 4: Choosing the form of your model
This is where the mathematics comes into play given there are so many models to choose from or invent.
There is a plethora of data available on the Internet, some of which is free, while some websites offer a paid service.
We have proposed a number of models in the past and they can be as complex or as simple as you wish. Our recommendation is not to overcomplicate.
This step can be interchanged with step 3 as the data may lead you to use a particular model, or a particular model may require specific data.
Step 5: Dealing with assumptions
Each model will have a number of assumptions, and you should be aware of their limitations. You may forget to do this, but it's absolutely vital.
For example a significant contributor to the financial crisis in 2007-08 was the misuse of derivatives caused by a misunderstanding of assumptions in contracts such as Collateralised Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps.
Previously in this article we highlighted how averages and standard deviations assume events are normally distributed. This for example would need be tested.
Step 6: Build the sports betting model
The next step is to actually build the sports betting model. There are numerous tools to use including online calculators, Excel, MatLab, Java, R programming and VBA.
You don't have to be a wiz at programming to build a sports betting model, but the more you understand the functionality, the better equipped you will become when testing and analysing the data.
Step 7: Test the model
You don't have to be a wiz at programming to build a sports betting model, but the more you understand the functionality, the better equipped you will become when testing and analysing the data.
It's paramount that you test the efficiency of any sports betting model to understand how sensitive it is to the results.
In any case the results of the model may lead us to reconsider any of the previous steps.
The key question as always is whether or not the model is making a profit? Therefore you'd need to test that – leading you to running through the cycle again.
Step 8: Monitor results
Assuming that an adequate model has been built and tested, it needs to be maintained as time progresses. This leads us back to the starting point – defining future aims.
Applied knowledge
Understanding the processes involved is paramount when learning how to build a sports betting model.
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Quantitative modelling isn't just about taking a model and applying it, there are a number of processes – not necessarily in the order stated – which should be completed.
Following this process won't guarantee a profit-making model, but it will ensure you are considering the fundamental aspects that are needed to build a new sports betting model.
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For an example of how to build a betting model, click here.
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Dominic Cortis is a lecturer with the Department of Mathematics at The University of Leicester; and an assistant lecturer at The University of Malta. He is an associate actuary and his research focuses on sports analytics as well as financial and betting derivatives.
